New findings in Bayesian tragedy
Bayesian after it was recovered. Image courtesy of TGR/Rainews Leaked details from the criminal investigation into the sinking of the 56-metre Perini Navi sailing superyacht Bayesian suggest that Italian prosecutors are narrowing their focus on crew responses and technical variables.
The inspection is being led by the chief prosecutor of Termini Imerese, Angelo Vittorio Cavallo. According to Italian news outlets, the technical and investigative team is evaluating whether the crew underestimated the rapidly worsening weather conditions and whether the measures taken to weather the storm were adequate.
The Bayesian went down in the early hours of 19 August 2024 near Porticello, close to Palermo, while at anchor. The tragedy claimed seven lives, including British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, his daughter Hannah, ship’s cook Recaldo Thomas, Morgan Stanley International chair Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, and attorney Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda.
The yacht’s captain, James Cutfield, along with crew members Tim Eaton and Matthew Griffith, are under investigation.
Ongoing investigation
Initial reports from the Adnkronos news agency indicate that the investigation is zeroing in on the operational state of the Bayesian’s lifting keel, which was reportedly kept fully raised at the time of the incident.
For a large-scale sailing vessel with a high windage profile – the Bayesian featured a record-breaking 75-metre aluminum mast – keel configuration could play a significant factor. For the Bayseain, lowering the retractable keel would increase the vessel’s draft from approximately 4 metres to nearly 10 metres, lowering the centre of gravity and potentially aiding the yacht’s righting moment.
The full report is not due for several weeks and the prosecutors office has not released any official statements on the results of the ongoing investigation.
In May 2026, it was reported that the investigation into the loss of the sailing superyacht Bayesian off Sicily in August 2024 had indicated that weather alone was unlikely to have caused the sinking.
The Termini Imerese prosecutor’s office has until February 2027 to complete the preliminary investigation and assess any liability in the tragedy.
The MAIB’s interim report, published in 2025, pointed to strong and rapidly increasing winds as a key factor in the incident.
The investigative panel
The inquiry is being led by the chief prosecutor of Termini Imerese, Angelo Vittorio Cavallo, who assumed the role in early 2026. Cavallo is supported by a specialised technical consultancy team including:
- Alessandro Biriaco, independent engineer
- Antonio Scamardella, professor of Naval Architecture and Marine Structures at the University of Naples Parthenope
- Alberto Marinò, professor of Naval Construction and Ship Systems at the University of Trieste
Still far from reality! There were no technical problems at all, no crew mistakes.
The KEY FACTOR here is a lamentable lack of stability.
To suggest that a sailboat will capsize if heeled beyond 70 degrees, is utter bullsh*it.
Any monohull sailboat on planet earth should have a vanishing stability past 90degrees. This means that in the event of an extreme wind squall causing a knockdown, the vessel will still right itself once the wind eases.
Of course it has to be designed to prevent downflooding at this heel angle.
I don’t believe the Bayseian had any major doors open, it is not yet been confirmed if the hull side cabin ports were open or not. That would be an obvious flood entry.
The lowering keel is intended for sailing, not at anchor. It is standard practice to raise the keel approaching port, in port and at anchor.
It probably would have helped in this situation, but only because it appears the vessel lacked sufficient stability.
The MAIB need to measure the dry displacement of the yacht and estimate complete weights onboard on the day. They need to weigh the the entire rig and sails.
Then they need to re-launch the hull and conduct stability trials alongside with estimation/ adjustment for the missing rig, and with keel up and down.
I will not be surprised to find the displacement significantly more than designed.
Its all very well for these yacht Yards and designers to declare they are going to build the biggest, the most luxurious and the tallest mast, etc, but few yards have the true experience necessary to achieve it with the required safety margins.
Targeting the crew is pure vindictiveness by the Italians, given it is an Italian product. They did NOTHING wrong as far as I have seen reported.
The yards group CEO apparently has immense influence in Italian investigations
However Italy also has a tradition of immense excellence in all aspects of marine design, construction and fabulous finished products
I expect that this excellence will eventually lead to conclusion of a weather event far beyond what had been planned for in the vessel design specifications
As I recall from the recent BBC documentary, the hull doors were photographed shut by the sailors on Sir Robert Baden Powell. Despite the almost immediate claim by PN CEO.
The BBC documentary CFD modelling showed the initial downflooding through machinery vents in the aft hull below the upper deck level.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m002y4xc
Millionaire Superyacht: Why Ships Sink: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m002y4xc via @bbciplayer
MAIB Interim Report:
“The approved SIB (stability information booklet) was required to include Curves of statical stability (GZ curves) for specific loaded conditions, including at least the loaded departure and arrival conditions with 100% and 10% consumables respectively. GZ curves were required to have a positive range of not less than 90°; however, LY2 allowed
for vessels of more than 45m in length to have a GZ range of less than 90° subject to agreed operational criteria. Derived wind heeling levers were also to be calculated for sailing vessels. Bayesian’s SIB contained curves for the sailing conditions when at maximum load, contractual full load and in the light load condition.
In all three of these conditions the centreboard had to be lowered. The respective angles of vanishing stability for the three conditions, recorded in the SIB, were 91.4°, 92.3° and 84.3°.
The SIB contained Curves of Maximum Steady Heel Angle to Prevent Downflooding in Squalls. These curves provided a safe operating range for a sailing vessel, indicating the maximum heel angle it could withstand before there was a risk of downflooding occurring in a sudden gust or squall.
The SIB did not contain such curves for when Bayesian was operating in the motoring condition where the centreboard was raised and no sails were up.”
Who produces the SIB – designer/architect or builder perhaps??
And motoring condition apparently isn’t considered/required by any regulator?? I guess that will be a recommendation by at least MAIB.